Weather forecasting ceased to be the riskiest job in town a few years ago; it was replaced with reading the palm lines of the Internet. And yet there are enough people willing to wager their professional reputations with predictions of what the connected world holds in the future.
No one, however, predicted the emergence of new media where content, and by implication power, got democratized giving liberty and freedom of speech extended definitions. Blogs, user generated content, YouTube style videos, wikis, podcasts, social media and Internet radio and television have allowed individuals and start-ups to sidestep the Rupert Murdoch model of how media is owned and managed. The last half decade has seen consumers of news and entertainment getting a chance to play publisher, editor, journalist, entertainer and broadcaster themselves; some managed to find audiences of a size leaving the bigger corporations would give their left arm for.
For all the excitement so far, it is only the beginning; we have all tasted blood, it is time to go for the main course. The future is knocking on the doors; at the risk of playing soothsayer, here are some market, business and technology trends to watch out for.
The second screen will move to the third
New media is all about how the four screens - the silver screen, television, PC and the mobile – play out. The success of online television channels like Joost and Bebo can be seen as curtain raisers to what is possible; in fact, they have played minor disruptors already. Devices like Apple TV and Tivo, already successful in some markets, will make it easier to enjoy online TV by taking it to the living room. With creative tools and animation becoming more user friendly and affordable, even user generated YouTube style videos could move to the next generation of quality and features.
All this means rich media, interactivity and on-demand features for consumers who can download the song playing on Indian Idol, or explore what went into the making of the latest Honda bike being shown on television, or switch to travel videos when an anchor is talking about the new President of Brazil. It can mean a change in viewing habits. “Earlier people tolerated prime time because there was no choice; they can now choose what, where and when they want,” says Sakina Arsiwala, International Manager, YouTube.
Not that the big studios and channels are allowing all these developments to pass them by; they are have already started embracing this medium. Rajshri Studios, producers of hit flicks like Maine Pyar Kiya and Hum Apke Hain Kaun, offers all its library on rajshri.com, and some on YouTube, for downloads. “We realized early on that the younger generation of tomorrow will consume video differently than has been the case traditionally. We are working on programming keeping this in mind. For example, we will soon premiere a made-for-internet, 90 part series of three minute episodes called Akbar Birbal Remixed. The old stories of wit and wisdom will be narrated in a contemporary avatar by characters shaped along the lines of Munnabhai and Circuit of the Munnabhai MBBS movie fame,” says Rajjat A Barjatya, Managing Director, Rajshri Media.
Content goes portable on the fourth screen
How do Koreans talk on their mobile? They make video calls. If their mobiles can transport such data, imagine what else they must be doing while on the go? With high speed wireless networks becoming standard progressively, get ready to consume rich media on the go.
Making it easier are newer devices to make all this more enjoyable; the iPhone can be seen as a blueprint on which future developments can be built upon. Already packing in the power of mini computers, these handhelds enable users to not only view bandwidth guzzling content but also upload it from wherever they are, adding a new dimension to user generated content and citizen journalism. The year 2008 is being seen in many countries as one when mobiles will come of age.
Music
The music business is still to come to terms with the disruption Napster caused. And now MTV may be learning some hard lessons too, as the grip labels and channels on the lifelines of musicians loosens. Bands like Da-Saz now premiere their new albums on online channels like YouTube. “The pre-launch on YouTube allows us to get feedback and comments from users who no longer have to wait in front of MTV for a music video to come up; it can be pulled on demand. The viral element means a global audience from day one, helping us get shows as far as Bogota. The flip side is viewers can switch off if they don’t like something; in the three minute society we live in now, you get all of three minutes to gain or lose an audience,” says Lionel Dentan, one of the band members.
Eventually, all bucks come from advertising
The Internet has spoiled most of us; anyone charging for content sounds like Martian or a highway robber. But the bills still need to be paid, and good old advertising may continue to be the best option available. There is already talk of the music industry going for advertising funded music download sites to fight illegal swapping.
Digital advertising is expected to go through a few iterations though in the coming years to catch the attention of the new audiences consuming content very differently. Engaging, rather than selling, will be the way to win the consumer over. The 30sec commercial format could be replaced with innovative ads offering a certain level of interactivity within the show, where users can explore products, services or themes mentioned in the show and then return to the episode when they want. Such user-driven form of advertising can therefore be highly targeted, less intrusive and much more effective.
By extension, companies will need to participate in conversations over blogs and social media, share more information and involve customers in their decision making process. Only then can buzz and resultant loyalty and sales be expected.
Building brands will have to be all about crafting really good, on-brand user experiences that are portable, projectable and adaptable by other digital experiences. As audience acquisition and increasing usage frequency becomes more difficult, brands will need to insert themselves into new traffic streams in a way that feels user-centered rather than advertising centered. Blogs, Podcasts, Internet video, RSS, article marketing, SEO and all the tools available today can be expected to suddenly become very hot; the tipping point may well be around the next bend.
Education could change that. Most businesses know they should be doing more on the Internet, but just don’t know what to do. Well known blogger and author Robert Scoble’s statement at the Internet Strategy Forum in Portland, USA last year can be very relevant here: “A new digital divide is developing and it is not represented by economics but by mindset. Today a legion of executives are deliberately deciding not to experiment and/or use Social Media tools. Little do they realize that they risk leaving a legacy in their organizations as the ones that ‘missed’ the Social Media revolution!” The revolution could hit this group hard and when it does, massive adoption of the above tools will lead to further innovations and applications across all channels including the web and cell phones.
Is all this possible? Yes, for a very strong reason. All these technologies and possibilities being talked about are already there; there are at least some markets in the world where each of these are successfully running. It is just a matter of time before they become standard fare globally.
Interestingly enough, for all the talk of ‘Power to the People’ to quote John Lennon, professional writers, directors and actors may not be out of work soon. Storytelling, delivered as high quality and full length features, is still an art mastered by only a few. The changing landscape will all be about more choices.
Which channel will you switch to?
