The future of LinkedIn, in 5 or 10 years
Posted on December 19, 2007
Filed Under Social Networking / Media |
I have written this piece based based on interviews with LinkedIn users and my own analysis. It talks of what LinkedIn will be like in 5 or 10 years. It is also a chapter in my forthcoming book ‘Let’s Connect: Using LinkedIn to get ahead at work‘ (ships January 10,2007). Feel free to agree or disagree with what I have written.
What will the Internet look like in the next five or 10 years? Any attempt to answer this question would be an exercise in fantasy and wishful thinking – after all, no one could have guessed how omnipresent the Net would become ten years ago!
So while it may not be safe to speculate on how LinkedIn will evolve in the coming years, it may be safe to say that it will take a more predictable path than many other Web applications. This statement can be based on a host of factors.
One, the objective of LinkedIn is to promote professional networking and business productivity. And this is not a fad replaceable by another. This is something we all have been instinctively practicing since commerce was invented. LinkedIn is just a tool, a platform, for something we anyway do all the time.
Second, LinkedIn has reached a tipping point in many territories of the world in terms of member base and usage patterns. And this trend is only expected to grow as newcomers would rather go to a forum with an existing traction; this ensures immediate benefits. Why would professionals spend their limited time on a site where critical mass is still to be built? Of course, this is not to take anything away from sites offering niche services who would have their own value.
Thirdly, professionals tend to be less fickle than teenagers on social sites who may not think too much of migrating to the next ‘happening’ site. A typical LinkedIn user may not even have the bandwidth to experiment with too many networking sites. There is also less of a ‘finicky’ factor at play here as long as one is getting the desired results.
And lastly, the stickiness to LinkedIn would be higher for those who have developed and nurtured their networks well. As has been emphasized in this book, LinkedIn is all about real world interaction. You make friends here with people, not with e-avatars. Why would you want to lose it all?
TEN WAYS LINKEDIN COULD CHANGE
This is not to say the site will not change in both its feature offerings as well as its look and feel. It is only natural for this to happen to address additional needs of users and to utilize the latest technology has to offer.
So, what can be expected in the future? Here’s 10 things you can look forward to. And none of these are what you may call far-fetched. A little understanding of how LinkedIn and its community of users is evolving, and how technology is progressing, make all of these very plausible:
1. An open source management consultancy
The site is full of domain experts, and they do share their knowledge through platforms like LinkedIn ‘Answers.’ It may only be logical to give it a more structured form enabling consultants to offer their services directly in a way they can monetise it. Lower costs, diversity of choice and out-of-the-box thinkers could well tilt the balance away from firms one has traditionally been turning to for similar services.
2. A job portal
LinkedIn has already become a happy hunting ground for many recruiters but no job portal like functionalities are available yet. Candidates are identified through a time-consuming search and reference process. It may just be a matter of time before this becomes automated. Users may be able to upload resumes to support their profiles, and activate their accounts to receive relevant job alerts. And since all discussions with regard to placements usually take place in private, there is little chance of a clutter on the site for such exchanges.
3. Your profile is you
It may just become a standard practice to have a LinkedIn profile, and highlight the same in your business cards, email signatures and other communication. And your account on LinkedIn could well be serving as your brand ambassador reflecting your professional credentials and personal character. Your profile already does this, but as LinkedIn use becomes more ubiquitous, it may mean more people looking up your profile. This would mean you pay closer attention to what you have written there.
4. More tools to talk for you
The current format of the profile allows for only static information with a few external links. But why send people all over the Web to know more about you? Blogs, video resumes, wikis and photo galleries could provide greater communication tools without a need to go elsewhere for the same. And going by LinkedIn emphasis on keep it purely a site for achieving business objectives, you may need to go somewhere else to discuss the latest movie or to talk about your previous night’s date.
5. LinkedIn Mobile
In theory this should happen soon enough, but mobile applications are still taking their time to take off; handsets and standardization of platforms are still limiting the potential of this medium. But it is just a matter of time before these challenges are overcome. More than anyone else, it is the professional who needs the flexibility to access his network even when on the move. And if LinkedIn fails to move into this space at the right time, it could give a serious competitor its best chance to beat LinkedIn at the game.
6. Your anytime, anywhere network
The utility of your network can get diminished if you don’t know who is available and when. Would you want to miss out on knowing a contact of yours and you were in the same town at the same time? If LinkedIn can create a kind of a ‘Unified Communications’ (a product offered by Microsoft), it would enable users to keep track of the coordinates of their contacts for any offline meets, and also know when someone is free to take a call or a message. This may be important for more effective and efficient networking. Yes, controls would be there to disclose only as much as one wants to.
7. Breaking down language barriers
A majority of active users on LinkedIn happen to be from the English speaking world – a risky proposition where stakes are measured in global terms. Multi-lingual capabilities for at least the major languages and some form of computerized translation is something you may expect on LinkedIn in the coming years.
8. LinkedIn Everywhere
Realizing its users may need to take their network with them as they use the Web to be more productive, LinkedIn now allows developers to integrate Linkedin into their applications by accessing information from a LinkedIn user’s network. With permission, of course. And this could mean a more seamless experience for users of the site – it may not matter what device you are using or what you are doing on it. You will effectively be logged into your LinkedIn account, be able to access your network and get the latest updates from the same and be able to work on any of LinkedIn’s features and applications wherever you are. This thought can also be extended to an enterprise edition with special versions to suit larger organizations.
9. Applications inside LinkedIn
The site now allows developers to build and run their own applications from within LinkedIn. As long as these address some business needs, keeping the site’s primary objective in mind, such a move is in line with what many other platforms having started doing. LinkedIn has made a start by signing on to Google’s Open Social initiative for this, and may be willing to do so for any such programs in the future. For LinkedIn it means not having to find out for itself what the market wants; independent partners could do this for them, develop applications that users may like and drive up usage of LinkedIn. For users, it means more business productivity tools than LinkedIn could develop – and that too faster than would have been possible otherwise.
10. Customise your LinkedIn
As the number of applications and features on LinkedIn go up, it may not mean all users would want all of these. It would also mean too much of a clutter. An ability to cherry pick the offerings would be an option. Users can already decide what their home page on LinkedIn should look like by selecting elements they like. And this trend can only be expected to be extrapolated to the rest of the site.
Can LinkedIn spoil things for itself? Read a related feature here.
Bottomline: LinkedIn is an exciting product, and the future only augurs well for it. It is worthy of your investment of time and effort today for you to be able to reap dividends going into the future. If you have to choose only one professional networking site, LinkedIn could well be it.
I say this with a strong sense of conviction.
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31 Responses to “The future of LinkedIn, in 5 or 10 years”
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Owned by Google?!
That would be my bet… Walls.
Ajay,
I think LinkedIn is a clear example on how the internet, globalisation, etc. is changing our way of working. In the early days, you had a direct contact with your colleagues and the company. Now, you have the availability of a worldwide network of colleagues. So, especially the possibility to share information, answer questions, setup a network, etc. will become more and more important and the added value of LinkedIn for the next years.
Hi Ajay,
I think LinkedIn would have moved beyond just a social networking platform. It could take any of the following shapes …
1. It would be a proper job search portal - People would use LinkedIn instead of Monster (or Naukri in Indian context).
2. Management Consultancy: Companies like BCG, McKinsey thrive on the quality of people they have and their respective work experience (basically domain expertise). With LinkedIn having great profesionals, the answers platform would move ahead to take shape of open-source(?) management consultancy projects. People would be able to form groups and offer their services as management consultants
Look at it as an evolved version of Rentacoder, freelance etc where quality of work would be more qualitative and focussed.
3. As Wallace said, Google or still better MS can buy LinkedIn and then no one can predict what happens.
On a lighter note …
4. I know a few people already using LinkedIn to shortlist applicants (am sure you have covered it in your book). I see a few companies offering “creating”, “modifying”, “adding keywords” to your LinkedIn profile so that your chances of landing a job are easier
LinkedIn will continue to evolve, more colleagues will use the availability of a global network to solve problems, share information, add value to their organizations and build relationships. I think LinkedIn will continue thrive and provide a quality resource for people to connect with expertise and experience in all fields and places.
Hi Ajay,
LinkedIn can evolve in numerous ways:
1. Bought by Google or MS to generate income from adverts;
2. Becoming a good tool for searching globally for jobs or applicants;
3. Becoming the place to consult subject matter experts from all over the world;
4. Becoming a tool for competence management by comparing your own competence with others or with your career goals. And advising in the best training courses;
5. Being replaced by the next best thing…..
Good luck on finishing your book.
Linkedin is about to hit the tipping point in the IT indistry in the UK - lots of people know about it, and people are increasingly using it to do business.
Having a profile on Linkedin will increasingly become an important tool in your promotion on the web.
In terms of what it is, it will depend very much on what Linkedin decide to do - if they keep the core business model the same (good useful free tools, and charge for value adds) then they will become a business super site - probably taken over as others have volunteered.
If they change the business model - to charge for basic services - then they will slowly wither.
1] Having a linkedin profile will be as essential/ normal as carrying a business card
2] Tighter groups for people who really share business interests - if the groups are supported well, with secure membership, etc then LI becomes a powerful tool for finding the right business partners/ vendors etc
3] Basic tools get more sophisticated and remain free
4] LI aggregates information [AV and text] from other sites around subjects that interest you, and for your eyes only - and offers this is as a solution for the time stressed majority
Speculation on ownership has already been covered, and the usual suspects crop up, so lets talk about the business.
The value proposition for LinkedIn is knowledge. This is both in the community of knowledge workers it brings together and the knowledge shared on these pages. As more workers realize they are “brands” and long-tail economics starts to exert is presence, LinkedIn will have a good head start on becoming the premier tool for advertising your skillwares.
LinkedIn will provide tools to allow skill-seekers to quickly data-mine for task fulfillment and locate skillware in different locales. It would even provide the web based platform for the team interaction.
As many corporations are late adopters I think it is highly possible that within the next 5 to 10 years, corporations will actually structure in a Linked In connection as part of their sales, marketing and contact development strategies.
I see who whole market segments developing withing Linked In as “groups” with focused inquires.
It could blow the doors off traditional business networking models, just as the internet itself has blown the doors off commerce and information itself.
It is indeed difficult to predict or even imagine what the Internet World will look like, not to mention one aspect of it. However, I believe in order for LinkedIn to survive and suceed in the competitive climate of “social networking” sites it will need to find unique ways to generate revenue.
LinkedIn will need to do much more than simply connect business people and colleagues. I envision a place where many people do most of their business on a site like LinkedIn. They can manage email, manage contacts, hiring, build trust and reputation, interact with relevant applications, manage marketing campaigns, host online meetings and seminars, and much much more.
I believe that LinkedIn is moving in the right direction to maintain the lead in the business networking space. They continue to show this with partnerships such as the one mentioned this week with BusinessWeek and opening up the space to development with OpenSocial as well as their own Intelligent Applications announcement.
This is what I see only if LinkedIn can find ways to generate revenue by leveraging their user base and brand loyalty. I have some ideas on how LinkedIn and other major Internet portals can creatively generate previously unrealized revenue. I see a bright and profitable future for LinkedIn, while at the same time providing their users a great value.
I wish I’m wrong, but I do believe that in 5/10 years LinkedIn will lose its main purpose… connecting people… people willing to improve they own knowledge about any subject, exchanging information and ideas about important things. I’m afraid it will become another relationship website, full of superfluous stuff. Of course it’s my opinion, and what I consider important could look superfluous for the others.
I envision that the phenomena of social networking will be finally popular in the corporate framework where enterprise’s Intranets with features similar to those offered by Linkedin will be instrumentals to encourage true collaborative environments in the tomorrow workplace. The product that could be launched with such purpose in a timeframe of 4 or 5 years could be known as Linkedin for Enterprises.
If Linkedin is really encouraging collaborative networking a useful subset of Linkedin for Enterprises could be Linkedin for Workgroups, a Linkedin subset where all the activities related with corporate projects could be exclusively viewed, registered and shared for those Linkedin connections that belong to any given corporate project. Such version of Linkedin would have capacities to allow the development of project’s blog, instant messenger and Internet video. Such product should be launched short time after that Linkedin for corporations were released.
I foresee that Linkedin slowly will replace to the Internet recruitment portals as that alternative preferred for head-hunters and recruiters. The Linkedin profile will include the possibility of integrate professional blogs where the questions asked or answered for any professional can be used to feed the blog. Additionally, a tomorrow Linkedin profile will include the capacity to attach a “cinume” or a video resume as a part of the exciting capacities that Linkedin will offer for the next future as useful resources to develop a personal branding strategy.
I think that events list service could be a nice feature that Linkedin could effectively deploy for the near future. Each Linkedin user could be enabled to publish a certain number of events monthly, for instance, no more than two weekly. This information would appear in a Tab called Events, in the same way that Answers feature do.
Each Linkedin user could in advance ask for information about the event directly to the person that posted the related information and know from his/her connections what are the persons that would be attending to this event.. Additionally, anyone interested could make a registration for attendance.
Linkedin might feature “proshifting” where the network is the recruiter. Now it is good as a base of professionals & friends who search & connect for business & jobs. It might have concentrated pockets of members in various places that project their culture into the online activities. Linkedin puts expertise together with direct and indirect problem domains. Those who would otherwise not have have been as effective may coincidentally experience a quantum shift that activates their ability to make a difference. Competitiors still include major corporations or professional societies who prefer their own flag networks, so linkedin has to find a way to become a transnetwork service provider. This may require resisting short-term perspectives about branded marketing or financing which affect other social networks in order to maintain position as the most trusted professional network.
I think it will morph & grow bigger. Already Linkedin has changed in the last one year. It is definitely helpful & will continue t grow in ise. The questions reamins when will it become too big for its own good? will linkedin be able to resist gorwing without controls? & It may end up being bought by another company like Google/Microsoft etc.
Your question made me think of lot of such events that our generations have seen through the stages of new-emerging-popular, and the last one is either face change and success or disappear to common.
I believe what Linkedin should be in next 5/10 yrs depends on us right now. I see lot of views here, some say it will be like any other common tool, or it will be a status icon, or it will disappear, it all depends on us right now.
Amongst all networking sites I have personally found linkedin to be the safest and most authentic.
LinkedIn has the power to grow powerful.
First of all, Best of Luck for your book.LinkedIn is one of the best examples of Web 2.0 sites which makes networking very simple and easy.
a.
As others have said, LinkedIn is a face of globalization but being Global does not only mean targeted to people in US,India,UK etc.How many people from China or non-English speaking countries are on LinkedIn? We would be able to count the nos on our fingertips (: Hence, LinkedIn has already fulfilled all the rules of the Web 2.0 arena but now a stage has come where it has to move to the Web 3.0 stage—> More personal [Check the link about Web 3.0 in the links section].Hence,5/10 years down the line, LinkedIn would also be attacking the market in areas where its existence is pretty less.
b.
Many a times, I have come across people who feel very scarred to write their complete profile on LinkedIn.You can set these preferences but it is set for all the users and hence,it would add more security features and would again be User Specific !!!
c.
Expert consulting [as others have already pointed out]
d.
There would be separate services for corporates.Just like Gmail does with its corporate services, similar monetization scheme would also be used for corporates [This is just a thought, might not even happen !!!]
e.
If the first point is taken care of by LinkedIn, chances of being acquired by a giant [with a better and a higher value] is also a possibility.
I believe that in 5 years we will begin to see the early part of the merger of the “Wisdom” compoent of Knowledge Management, Social Networking and Search Engines. This will mean some useful new features on LinkedIn will be up and running, which are now being requested. Features like mobile support, better recommendations and searching, agents, vastly better group support, will all be strong and LinkedIn will be a business necessity.
I believe in 10 years, in 2017-8, we will see a full convergence of KM, Social Networking and Search Engines. The Personal Network Manager will be completely mobile, a business necessity, and few would consider doing something important single-handedly.
I would agree with everyone’s POV here. I for one, believe strongly that the following will happen in the next couple of years (5 IMO is a very long time in deed)
1) Introduction of Language Support
2) LinkedIn to be the one-stop-shop for anything and everything that fulfills our needs as a professional including existing features such as job search, immigration, working in different countries etc etc
3) Diversification into the education space with focused social communities serving students needs starting from when they begin school to when they graduate and need to come into the workforce
4) Professional “wallet” concept for the Mobile for not just US but everywhere
5) Offline professional networking via meets etc
6) Being brought by Google
7) Better ROI on “time spent on LinkedIn”: Encouraging help/discussions/Q&A with some “carrot” at the end of the stick which will serve as credible proof to employers but also provide some benefit (monetary or otherwise) for a person investing his time into helping others
Linked today is the first port of call for “People Search”. The success of this powerful platform over the next 10 years depends on ‘STRIKING THE RIGHT BALANCE’ in the following areas:
1. KISS vs Feature rich - Keep it simple and help users grow online networks vis a vis adding more features to make the content more engaging.
2. Quantity vs Quality - How does it help users improve the quality of engagement with others in their networks vis a vis the current focus towards growing the networks
3. Current vs Future agenda - Monetise the huge data of professional networks, demographics vis a vis the current predominantly subscriber based model.
Tomorrow’s world would be dominated by owners of large networks. The large would also need to provide depth by STRKING THE RIGHT BALANCE!
All the best for your book!
Ajay, one way in particular that I think LinkedIN can be useful is to follow their customized news feeds through to the point where members of an organization (corp or NGO) can see a highly customized news feed (a la Yahoo Pipes) that is appropriate to the various groups/departments in their structure. It’s always been tough to keep tabs on what’s going on in the open marketplace AND in different departments/divisions (esp. within large corp structures) — of course, having this constantly updating knowledge (sort of like Truemors for business or org’s) is great when you’re in front of colleagues and clients and are able to show you really have a solid grasp of what’s current, and in the pipeline.
I expect added value to be delivered by 3rd party applications based on OpenSocial. Plus maybe some kind of collaborative environment on top of LinkedIn.
Good luck with finishing your book.
My guess is that LinkedIn will be aligned with a social website where LinkedIn would represent the ‘professional face’ of an individual. It would also become a platform for individuals to showcase professional excellence, competence etc.
Who knows, LinkedIn may even be used to generate a score that is best suited for any job being advertised. Such a score may be a mix of feedback from other members - which is the only score of sorts available presently and other inputs provided by the person himself or others.
In all, most substantial value that LinkedIn maybe able to provide is from using the data that it will have about its members.
Good luck for the book !
Hi Ajay,
I wish you the best with your book. In answer to your question, acquisitions seem likely and the golden handshake offered by the likes of Google/MS can be hard to turn down. As a recruiting tool, Linkedin has the potential to eliminate the antiquated Monster but penetration outside of the US is still at a relatively low level. Adding CV’s/resumes and allowing them to be searched by keywords in a boolean-friendly way would make it very strong but Linkedin doesn’t want to be just a recruiting tool, if it was, then it would inevitably lose a lot of the subject matter experts that provide good information for other members. If penetration improves, and new functionailty keeps being added there is no reason why Linkedin will not still be the number 1 professional networking site in the world. I just hope it doesn’t get over-run with advertising and expensive subscription rates.
I have been using linkedin since last 2-3 mnths only. The kind of response I have got is really amazing. If linkedin continues to maintain its professionalism/authenticity I believe it has the potential to replace job sites like naukri.com, jobs ahead.com. Recruiters will/can also use it to verify the credentials of its new recruitees. Also it can also become a important site to exchange matters of professional interest.
This is a very interesting question. As chips continue to get faster and less expensive and bandwidth becomes ever more plentiful, my crystal ball shows a Linkedin with SecondLife type features. Now we have a profile photo, next social networking goes multi-media. Avatars for each user and online chat rooms, etc. I would also add location based services so users can also see not only who in their network is 2 degrees away, but they could also see who is in the next office bulding or neighborhood. Lastly, I am sure that they will launch a mobile application to help facilitate Linkedin on the go. This could be very helpful for trade shows and business travel. You land in a foreign city and look up those in your network who can help you find a place to eat, conduct business, etc. Good luck with your book.
Ajay
I would hazard a guess that it would’ve been acquired by one of the bigger players in the market - a Google or a Microsoft. This would ensure longevity of the model.
Additionally, it would cater to a much larger population - we have seen this increase in the last 12 months. This would correspondingly mean that it would be used for job hunting more and more - whether from a job-seeker’s perspective, or from a hiring entity’s.
The initial fad of having a large number of connections would die down to an extent.
What is yet to be seen are the innovations the administrators of this tool will build in. The recent introduction of sending messages (in contrast to emails) has been a welcome one. There are more in the offing, I am sure.
Lastly, I feel that there would a shift in the revenue model - though I do not have a peek into the current one, advertising would come in in a larger way.
Can anyone please guide me on how Linkedin is promoting professional networking and business productivity ?
I feel Linkedin provides a platform
where you can find people, add them to your contacts,
find jobs posted (mostly by companies of non-indian origin or may be who donot have
any opportunities in India),
find Q&A related to business aspects.
But i am not able to understand how people interact by means of LinkedIn, how can one improve business aspects by creating a profile on linked in ?
I agree that member base of LinkedIn is very huge but how it helps an individual?
In 5-10 years, won’t all sites like LinkedIn change by taking much more advantage of widely-accessible broadband? LinkedIn users will be able to upload all sorts of video content about themselves, their interests, their projects, their jobs, etc., creating real-time online portfolios.
What I still don’t understand about LinkedIn (I’m a very new user) is how do employers feel about this? In the US we have a very competitive labor market where the employed are constantly edgy about changes in the workplace, possible downsizing, and personnel shifts and layoffs that may affect their job. (Thankfully, I’m self-employed at this point in my career — but I’ve known this anxiety myself.)
Doesn’t the very existence of an employee’s profile on LinkedIn signal to an employer that the employee considers himself/herself a “free agent” who is liable to look for work elsewhere? Doesn’t that have the potential to loosen the (already tenuous) bonds of trust between employer and employee, escalating the anxiety? Might it not possibly encourage bosses to dismiss employees who are not regarded as 100% loyal, and hire others who don’t put up LinkedIn profiles?
Just some thoughts from a new LinkedIn user…
one part of the answer is: consolidation of all these tools, irrespective of their main focus. I see too many people on too many (slightly different) networks, and I suspect I’m not alone getting lost at times, and then getting tired of all this work related to properly updating info in varying formats.
Otherwise, I agree. Assuming a world-wide gentlemen agreement cc the degree of “overselling” yourself, this could well be a major competition to the job hunt sites. As a recruiter (at times) I already use it – if only to check for consistency of what a CV or a presentation from a temp agency says against the man’s (or woman’s) own words.
Bottom line, I believe it will flatten out functionality-wise (after consolidation of the various networks including facebook), and people will start focussing on cleaning up content, and lead a live which will be source for new exciting content.
May be I’m saying this because I hurt my ribs sledging with the kids, and therefore just spent most of my X-mas holiday transferring stuff from an old PC to a new one, checking out tools for music, video, and my 18000 photos, and I now merrily tag pictures so that I (and my family members) can find them more easily. I don’t really intend to put too much on the open internet, not even against the promise of face recognition for easier tagging.
I hope this slightly different answer helps you, too, and wish you good luck with your publication.
the blog entry, it looks excellent. Enumerated points are thoughtful. Futurism is difficult, but your method of research and polling increases confidence. The need for communications was interesting. A complement to being the sole portal, and using only “applications inside”, would be if linkedin offered an embedded utility used across other sites which would also apply to the item about mobility. Might add tags for users, roles and discussions in addition to the keyword search. For more reviews of technical books and e-books, also see cadsmith.blogspot.com.
Hey Ajay,
Saw your cover page of the book and some of the Sample Chapters … Nice cover page, I should say
So when is the free Autographed copy reaching me
-Himanshu Sheth